Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing Fan Profile

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Who am I?

Began in the horse industry as an owner, for an underrated trainer named John McCord. In a small stable, this means being a hotwalker and groom, also. I now work in pari mutuels, and worked four different states. And I'm not finished.

Interests

bridge, film work, Horse racing, NFL

Main Skills

handicapping. I'm here so that we can all keep reminding each other that the only way to ever win money is to be considered an i, Like everyone who visits

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Johnny Matheis
Friday 27th February 2009, 8:24pm
Lets not kid ourselves. Picking superperfectas of the prep, and picking Derby winners is seperate. I'll try to bring up a general point and a specific point in each comment. First, the general point. The Derby prep races for Saturday, Feb 28, which will be soon. The Sham offers a heavy favorite inThe Pamplemousse. If he is beat, then there will be a good story. The Battaglia at Turfway has a obvious favorite in Proceed Bee Proceed Bee (who I'm listing at 9-5) is well bred for more classic distances. He won the Grand Canyon at Churchill last November, and came back in January to run 5th of 7 at Oaklawn. He is facing a group that must prove themselves. Usually, in a 1 1/16 mile race, someone does. Stratos, trained by James Baker, is stretching out, as is Shanes Gold, and both are well bred enough for the distance. Still, Proceed Bee is a solid choice, and should hit the boards. The high profile Derby prep is the Fountain of Youth of course, which seems a bit short at only 1 mile. Many of the entrants are in Future Book 1, which helps make this an even higher profile race. Beethoven has to be considered for the favorite role, with a Grade 2 win at Churchill last November. Actually, this is the sort of race that determines who will be a high profile contender, at least until the Derby. The specific point (or general if you think of it that way) is who people pick for their Derby horse from the first future book. It was certainly a good time to go for the field. The reason being that too many of the 23 named contenders began their careers too early. If a thoroughbred begins running in May of a 2 year olds season, he needs outstanding luck to keep from breaking down by Derby Day. No professional gambler would ever take low odds on a 2 year old wonder in May to win the Kentucky Derby. 7 of the 23 had 3 races under their belts already by Sep. 15, 2008. No pro would ever consider any of these at under 80-1 odds, even for a stab. They can be tossed out altogether. It would take a 1 in a 100 chance for a colt like this to still have a chance on Derby Day. There are just too many ways for a horse to get hurt, added onto them being pushed too hard too early. By the beginning of this year, of the 16 left, 3 had 5 or more races already. Too many to take anything under 35-1. That still leaves 13 credible picks, but few with the desirable bloodlines for Derby distance. Midshipman is in the hands of Godolphin Stable, who really need to prove themselves in the Derby. No one would want to take low odds on them. Hello Broadway hasn't been pushed too hard by Barclay Tagg. He's a grandson of Unbridle and Storm Cat, wo he bred reasonably well. The longer the race, the less desirable the performances of Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and West Side Bernie, though the latter two seem to like added ground. Fairgrounds heroics don't usually translate well at Derby time, which is bad news for Friesan Fire. The first pool would've been the time to take him, because once he faces Grade 1 rivals, he'll either move up the standings and to lower odds, or he'll be out of the Derby picture. The same goes for Taqarub. For Future Pools, one wants to take a contender whose odds will either go down or be out of the picture in later races. A bet on Breeder Cup winner Midshipman, for example, would've made no sense. His odds will steadily go up, and he probably won't be out of the picture for a while, so a fan of Midshipman would be foolish to bet him in Pool 1. This doesn't help, ipso facto, but should give bettors an idea when Pool 2 comes along. That is the specific point. Picks for Saturday: skipping the Sham and taking the Battaglic and the Foutain. Battaglia: PROCEED BEE, Shanes Gold, Stratus. Foutain: THEREGOESJOJO, Beethoven, Capt. Candyman Can

Johnny Matheis's Weblog Posts


NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST posted on 08/24/2010

Genreally, horse racing fans make good NFL fans. Not only because NFL fantasy involves Math, which is the horse racing fan's forte, but also because both involve conditioning.

A look at 2010 NFL, and what looks to happen. I'll give some predictions, but fans know that close games, injuries, blown coverages, and psycological brekdowns occur any time.

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5. A lot of people think this is Brady and Moss, but New England has always been based on a "full team" concept, with lots of depth. A team like this can survive injuries, and figures to play well at the season's end. They can run and pass. The defense is adequate.

NEW YORK JETS 10-6 Needs to retain their defensive dominance. They're strong at linebacker, up front, and the backfield. They were first in pass defense last year in yards allowed, and first in first downs allowed. There's no reason to think they still can't dominate. On offense, they wer first in rushing yards, which compliments a super defense quite well. The passing game is less than what they want. Braylon Edwards is there chiefly to make opposing defenses back off the line of scrimmage. He doesn't inspire a lot of fear. It's up to a good offensive line to keep it going, and they will at first, but it isn't a deep line. Offensive linemen go down too often, and this team can't afford that. Still, a power team in the NFL.

Continue reading "NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST"
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Arlington Million better than it appears posted on 08/21/2010

Usually, when a showcase race like the Arlington Million has few class proven horses, that is when you actually get some of the better up and comers.

This could be bad news for desreving favorite, GIO PONTI. Still, Ponti is a must use.

In fact, this looks like a three horse races, with a fourth one looking like one to fill in a tri if someone else falters;

ARLIGNTON AUG 21, 2010, SATURDAY, RACE 10 GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION: TURF 1 1/4 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLY ODDS-COMMENTS

8 TAJAAWEED 10-1 made a forward move in last race that can crush these, and form indicates he can repeat

9 TASEEZ 4-1 in the fifth race off a long layof has to figure to run big in American visit

6 GIO PONTI 8-5 is the class here

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How to Ice a Belmont box posted on 06/04/2010

I've been crowing about Zito's ICE BOX since well before the derby, and he landed second in that race at 11-1, which actually made him one of the lower prices in a strange derby with an 8-1 favorite.

Now, he's likely to be the Belmont favorite, and justly so, but with near favorites winning both the earlier races of the triple crown, one would expect a long shot to finally emerge. The second choice has won both races. Not exactly chalk, but certainly the second lowest price possible.

Still, Zito is a pro. He isn't likely to enter either of his colts at less than 100%, and certainly won't run a hurt colt.

Figuring on 10 cent superfectas, one can still find value.

06/05/2010 11th Race BELMONT, 1 1/2 MILE GRADE 1 BELMONT:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

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No pleasure in reporting horsemen cheating posted on 05/07/2010

Kentucky is one of the most crooked in the country in most things, Horse racing included. You can't tell by "reports", because a truly corrupt system will not report abuses.

But we knew they would do it for the huge pick six carry over Thursday. And I watched, and found an obvious cheat.

Contrary to belief, it isn't the jockey who is to be watched. They try to stay aboard an animal and hold on for their health. It is the trainer who can "juice up" a horse. "Juicing up" may or may not involve illegal substances, but it involves having a horse ready or not. This is okay, as long as it is not blabbed to all the sports writers, trainers, and hoodlums who bet it down.

In the eighth race, which was the 4th leg of the pick six, CLASSIC EMILY was one that looked to route this group on paper. She figured to go off at 2-1. She already manhandled most of them, and the only real competition looked to be from PROUDLY IRISH, who should have been second choice around 4-1.

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Form filled Derby day posted on 05/02/2010

I feel guilty again. I didn't have time to handicap, work, and post Friday night, but the races at Churchill on Derby Day were uncommonly form fitting.

In fact, I have no complaints. I even bet a small pick 6, using only eight combinations, using only singles and at most two horses in a race, and still got 3 winners and three seconds. I figured I would easily have had the five win consolation if I just went ahead and bet 20 combinations for 40 bucks.

Naturally, I skipped the first race, which had such a short field that only people following certain horses or trainers could possibly bet it without being called amateurs. I really loved SPICER, who ran third in the second race, thinking he'd be a good one, but he is falling short. I'm sure it is no fault of Nafzger, though, as he's doing everything he can. I still expect this one to be a stakes runner some day. Still, there were only two obvious competitors, and they ran first and second, so the tri box was a "gimme" and paid very well.

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