Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing Fan Profile

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Who am I?

Began in the horse industry as an owner, for an underrated trainer named John McCord. In a small stable, this means being a hotwalker and groom, also. I now work in pari mutuels, and worked four different states. And I'm not finished.

Interests

bridge, film work, Horse racing, NFL

Main Skills

handicapping. I'm here so that we can all keep reminding each other that the only way to ever win money is to be considered an i, Like everyone who visits

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Johnny Matheis
Friday 27th February 2009, 8:24pm
Lets not kid ourselves. Picking superperfectas of the prep, and picking Derby winners is seperate. I'll try to bring up a general point and a specific point in each comment. First, the general point. The Derby prep races for Saturday, Feb 28, which will be soon. The Sham offers a heavy favorite inThe Pamplemousse. If he is beat, then there will be a good story. The Battaglia at Turfway has a obvious favorite in Proceed Bee Proceed Bee (who I'm listing at 9-5) is well bred for more classic distances. He won the Grand Canyon at Churchill last November, and came back in January to run 5th of 7 at Oaklawn. He is facing a group that must prove themselves. Usually, in a 1 1/16 mile race, someone does. Stratos, trained by James Baker, is stretching out, as is Shanes Gold, and both are well bred enough for the distance. Still, Proceed Bee is a solid choice, and should hit the boards. The high profile Derby prep is the Fountain of Youth of course, which seems a bit short at only 1 mile. Many of the entrants are in Future Book 1, which helps make this an even higher profile race. Beethoven has to be considered for the favorite role, with a Grade 2 win at Churchill last November. Actually, this is the sort of race that determines who will be a high profile contender, at least until the Derby. The specific point (or general if you think of it that way) is who people pick for their Derby horse from the first future book. It was certainly a good time to go for the field. The reason being that too many of the 23 named contenders began their careers too early. If a thoroughbred begins running in May of a 2 year olds season, he needs outstanding luck to keep from breaking down by Derby Day. No professional gambler would ever take low odds on a 2 year old wonder in May to win the Kentucky Derby. 7 of the 23 had 3 races under their belts already by Sep. 15, 2008. No pro would ever consider any of these at under 80-1 odds, even for a stab. They can be tossed out altogether. It would take a 1 in a 100 chance for a colt like this to still have a chance on Derby Day. There are just too many ways for a horse to get hurt, added onto them being pushed too hard too early. By the beginning of this year, of the 16 left, 3 had 5 or more races already. Too many to take anything under 35-1. That still leaves 13 credible picks, but few with the desirable bloodlines for Derby distance. Midshipman is in the hands of Godolphin Stable, who really need to prove themselves in the Derby. No one would want to take low odds on them. Hello Broadway hasn't been pushed too hard by Barclay Tagg. He's a grandson of Unbridle and Storm Cat, wo he bred reasonably well. The longer the race, the less desirable the performances of Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and West Side Bernie, though the latter two seem to like added ground. Fairgrounds heroics don't usually translate well at Derby time, which is bad news for Friesan Fire. The first pool would've been the time to take him, because once he faces Grade 1 rivals, he'll either move up the standings and to lower odds, or he'll be out of the Derby picture. The same goes for Taqarub. For Future Pools, one wants to take a contender whose odds will either go down or be out of the picture in later races. A bet on Breeder Cup winner Midshipman, for example, would've made no sense. His odds will steadily go up, and he probably won't be out of the picture for a while, so a fan of Midshipman would be foolish to bet him in Pool 1. This doesn't help, ipso facto, but should give bettors an idea when Pool 2 comes along. That is the specific point. Picks for Saturday: skipping the Sham and taking the Battaglic and the Foutain. Battaglia: PROCEED BEE, Shanes Gold, Stratus. Foutain: THEREGOESJOJO, Beethoven, Capt. Candyman Can

Johnny Matheis's Weblog Posts


Animal in Motion posted on 06/10/2011

Obviously, ANIMAL KINGDOM is the class of the Belmont. SHACKLEFORD is certainly what we would call a "running fool" and obviously the most dangerous foe. The odds will surely reflect this.

It's figuring out which you think will come out on top, and which may run out of the money. Obviously, the speedball is most likely to fade, but one never knows. After all, both have run in both triple crown races and could be down for this.

So it boils down to who else to put in the exotic wagering. MASTER OF HOUNDS, NEHRO, and MONZON are all bred for much shorter races, but the first two of these are outrunning their bloodlines so far. Neil Howard is always a danger to run in the money, though his PRIME CUT looks a cut below. The one medium priced one that I would toss out as a "sucker" play is SANTIVA. This is because he was primed for his best effort in the Derby and didn't deliver. He has flunked two straight races, and of course if you own him, you know you have a nice animal, but he isn't a grade one stakes runner. The connections may be hoping he's one of those who runs a big fluke win every now and then, but this means a win, not "in the money." He's a toss out in the exotics, unless you have a hunch to put him on top as a fluke winner.

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Black Eyed Susan posted on 05/18/2011

Who is Cho Myung Kwon?

 That's the big question. While the West coast horses are getting clobbered in the East, there's one old guy who is a new name in racing, who may not fit the mold.

But first, a word about the Preakness.

The Preakness is a time for people to make their private picks. ANIMAL KINGDOM is the real deal, however. He had the best forward move going into the Derby, and easily could have been bet if one ignored the "wise" guys. He's the first legitimate triple crown threat I've see in thirty years.

But this is about the Susan. I don't like small fields, but sometimes you can find a vulnerable favorite. Here, there are three favorites, and one of them is vulnerable on the issue of fitness.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR THE BLACK EYED SUSAN, RACE 10 PIMLCIO 05/20/2011 GRADE TWO 1 1/8 MILE

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KENTUCKY OAKS DAY 5/06/2011 posted on 05/05/2011

The two big days are here.

So, now some big picks for Oaks Day and the Derby itself. I will pick 6 races for Oaks Day, and the Derby.

FRIDAY 05/06/2011 CHURCHILL DOWNS, KY OAKS DAY

FOR EACH RACE: PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

FIRST RACE 1 1/16 MILE MAIDEN

8 EXPRESS RUN 5-2 Zito makes the difference with this clear contender

1 ISLAND BOUND 7-2 Runs well this time of year

5 SMOTH CHARM 4-1 Baker a capable trainer

3 VIRTUOUSLY 8-1 Dale Romans also capable

6 RESERVED INDIAN 8-1 Coming off fast track, the least likely contender to be fit

2 EMPRESS OF GOLD 8-1 Watch the tote as Mott's stable usually bets them to nothing odds when ready

4 TROPIC OF AQUARIUS 8-1 4 year old must improve

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Churchill and rain posted on 05/04/2011

Tomorrow, I'll handicap again, for the Oaks and Derby. I'm not sure I'll give Derby picks, because the Derby is a personal thing for most people. It's where the MacDonalds worker picks ARCHARCHARCH. It's where the dog lover picks MASTER OF HOUNDS. It's where the fireman and clothing store worker pick PANTS ON FIRE.

First of all, the magical dosage system. It works. Is it coincidence? Probably not. And it's speculation why it works, nothing more. Almost all of this year's runners have dosages either under 4, or very close. And a look at their pedigree makes one think they're all the same balanced runner. Most of them have Nearctic, most of them have a lot of stamina in the background, with an inkling of six furlong speedsters like Mr. Prospector, just enough for balance.

In fact, those who have some of the best pedigree didn't make the cut, or didn't perform well enough at 1 1/8 mile. There's little doubt that those who raced in Arkansas would not have held off J W Blue at 1 1/4 mile, and J W isn't even close to being considered Derby class.

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Opening day at Churchill posted on 04/30/2011

Now that Churchill is open, I can feel assured of handicapping for speed and forward moves a little more.

When Churchill began their trend to the rock hard surface to make speed, it was like concrete to these large horses who pound on the surface. Churchill did it because Mr Prospector, a six furlong sprinter is their favorite Kentucky bred, and was a large goose egg in breeding Derby winners. Mr Prospector foals have early speed and strong bones, so the rock hard surface was meant for future Prospector scions to have a better chance in the mile and a quarter Derby, regardless of how many other horses were crippled on Churchill's surface.

But for handicapping, this meant that after 1986, speed ruled Churchill. Class meant nothing at all, and was a detriment, due to factors like carrying extra weight and having a harder campaign, since now every single race was an ordeal twice as much as before. Lightly raced runners fared better. If you bet class at Churchill after 1986, you lost nine times out of ten, for a payoff average of 4-1, which meant you'd be better off, and actually winning, if you bet everything but the class.

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